Peter H. Pauly
Bio
Peter Pauly is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and a Research Associate at the Institute for International Business. Peter's research is in the areas of econometrics, macroeconomics, and international economics, with a focus on model-based forecasting techniques and national and global economic modeling. He is co-editor of Economic Modelling and a past editor of the Journal of Forecasting. He is a policy advisor to many national and international organizations.
Academic Positions
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1989-Present
Professor, University of Toronto
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1991-1993 1996-1998
Professor of Policy Modeling, Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto
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1981-1989
Associate Professor, University of Pennsylvania
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1976-1981
Assistant Professor, University of Hamburg
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1996-Present
Extraordinary Professor, University of Pretoria
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1984
Visiting Professor, University of Mannheim
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1992
Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund
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1986
Visiting Scholar, Bank of Finland
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1989, 1992
Visiting Scholar, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Selected Publications - Papers
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Motivations for FDI and Domestic Capital Formation
with Walid Hejazi
Journal of International Business Studies
Issue:34
2003
Pages: pp. 282-289
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The Indian Foreign Exchange Market and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Rupee
with Ila Patnaik
Global Business Review
2002
Pages: pp. 195-216
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The Determinants of Atmospheric SO2 Concentrations : Reconsidering the Environmental Kuznets Curve
with R.K. Kaufmann, B. Davidsdottir, and S. Garnham
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Issue:25
1998
Pages: pp. 209-220
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The Effects of NAFTA on the Environment
with R. Kaufmann and J. Sweitzer
The Energy Journal
Issue:14
1993
Pages: pp. 217-240
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Planning Horizon and Price Behaviour
with K.S. Lai
Economica
Issue:59
1992
Pages: pp. 53-62
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Random Walk or Bandwagon: Some Evidence form Foreign Exchanges
with K.S. Lai
Applied Economics
Issue:24
1992
Pages: pp. 673-700
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The Use of Prior Information in Forecast Combination
with F.X. Diebold
International Journal of Forecasting
Issue:6
1990
Pages: pp. 503-508
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Endogenous Risk in a Portfolio Balance Rational Expectations Model of the DM$ Exchange Rate
with F.X. Diebold
European Economic Review
Issue:33
1988
Pages: pp. 25-53
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Structural Change and the Combination of Forecasts
with F.X. Diebold
Journal of Forecasting
Issue:6
1987
Pages: pp. 21-40
Selected Publications - Books and Chapters
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Global Economic Modeling
Singapore : World Scientific Publ.
2017
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Reflections on Global Modeling: the State of the Art
in: P. Pauly (ed.), Global Economic Modeling (Singapore : World Scientific Publ.)
2017
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How Do Regional Traden Agreements Affect Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional FDI
in: L. Eden and W. Dobson (eds.), Governance, Multinationals, and Growth, Cheltenham : E. Elgar
2005
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Macroeconometric Models and the European Economic Union
with S.G. Hall and U. Heilemann
Berlin : Duncker & Humblot
2004
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Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Capital Formation
with Walid Hejazi
Ottawa : Industry Canada
2002
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Pricing to Market:Exploring New Export Price Equations for the LINK System
with B. Gangnes and H.Y. Li
in: B.G. Hickman and L.R. Klein (eds.) LINK Proceedings 1991/1992 (Singapore : World Scientific Publ.)
1998
Pages: pp. 331-351
Research and Teaching Interests
Teaches courses at the graduate and undergraduate level in Macroeconomics, International Monetary Economics, Applied Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Monetary Theory and Policy, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Techniques. Current research includes forecast evaluation techniques, learning in econometric models, combination of forecasts, international trade allocation models, taxes, uncertainty and foreign direct investment, trade composition and long-run growth.
Honors and Awards
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2010
Honorary Doctorate, University of Pretoria
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1978-1980
Research Fellowship, German Science Foundation (DFG)
Professional Affiliations/Memberships
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American Economic Association
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Econometric Society
Academic / Professional Service
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2014-2015
Vice-Dean,
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2013-2014
Interim Dean,
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2006-2013
Vice-Dean, Academic
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1995-2006
Associate Dean, Research and Academic Resources
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1989-Present
Director, Project LINK, University of Toronto
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1981-1989
Associate Director, Project LINK, University of Pennsylvania
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1997-2015
Co-Editor, Economic Modelling
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1984-1990
Editor, Journal of Forecasting
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Consultant with: United Nations, New York; World Bank, Washington, DC; Commission of European Communities, Brussels; International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC; Asian Development Bank, Manila; UNCTAD, Geneva; CIDA, Ottawa; World Trade Organization, Geneva